The following preface is added with the intent to mitigate the risk that certain individuals may jump to false conclusions because they skim or partially read what was written (as they have done all too many times in the past), a risk generally present with the message boards.
        So, before starting, it is stated in absolutely and perfectly clear terms (especially to a segment of the Wolverines and the Maize and Blue faithful) that this discussion is NOT intended, in any way, shape, or form, to malign or belittle the University of Michigan nor diminish the 2 outstanding all time records of 884 wins (in 1232 games across 133 seasons) and a 0.73295 winning percentage. Neither is it intended to suggest that those records be discarded or overturned.

        The "Winningest" Team In College Football History
 
        The recognized records, currently held by the University of Michigan, are a 0.73295 winning percentage and the accumlation of 884 wins (and 310 losses and 38 ties) in 1232 games over the course of 133 seasons. These 2 accomplishments are based on the 142 seasons on record.
        Why this the discussion?
        When looking over the 142 seasons, some questions arise. Which years should (or should not be included)? Should programs be put at a disadvantage because they elected not to field teams during WWI (primarily 1918, but also 1917 and some schools did not resume until the 1920 season) and WWII (primarily 1943, but also 1944 and 1945)? Which opponents should (or should not be included)? Should games against high schools be included? What about pickup games at military bases, or with athletic clubs or non-US teams?
        While there are several points to be made about credit for games played against non-college/university teams or even against junior college or community college teams, those points will be saved for a different discussion. In the early years, it was difficult to find opponents. Also, separately listing those "other" games will likely affect all of the teams that were so important in the kick-off of college football and may well prove to not significantly affect the relative standings.
        That leaves for discussion the question of which years should be included or excluded. Fundamentally, the one question that needs to be answered is, when did college football evolve to the point where it is relevant to the record?
        There are certain significant dates from which point forward college football was substantially changed and hence merit discussion. Looking back to 1869, one would not recognize the game between Princeton and Rutgers as anything at all like modern gridiron football as we know it today. The same is true for the 1872 game between Columbia and Yale. As one progresses through the years, the game slowly evolves to what we have today. Do, when did college football become a fair approximation of what it is today?
        In pursuit of information and potential answers, some interesting things popped up. For example, in the upcoming 2011 season Notre Dame (0.73223 winning percentage) can surpass Michigan's record of 0.73395 by winning 4 (or more) games more than Michigan. If ND goes 10-2 and UM goes 6-6 then the Irish take the winning percentage record away from the Wolverines, given the record books as they are written. Notre Dame fielded its first team in 1887 and has fielded teams continuously since 1892. From 1892 to present, Notre Dame has a 0.73364 winning percentage while Michigan's winning percentage for those same 119 seasons is 0.73717. Putting both teams on the same timeline benefits Michigan (its first 14 years posted a 0.61628 result). These are just a few of the points to be considered.
        According to the records, Michigan leads Texas by 34 wins. Texas formed its first team in 1893 and has fielded teams 118 consecutive seasons, but Michigan fielded its first team in 1878. Between 1878 and 1892, Michigan accumulated 33 wins in 45 games. If looking only at those seasons (starting in 1893) when both teams fielded teams, the Wolverines lead the Longhorns by exactly 1 win for the past 118 seasons. The point? The winningest record is due in part to the number of seasons. Michigan gained a 33 win lead before Texas even fielded a team, but since then, the Longhorns have matched the Wolverines toe-to-toe with only a 1 win difference. To be fair, Texas has played 1212 games since 1893 and UM played 1177, a difference of 35 games. Still, one of the records is just the number of wins. The other, which Texas is not immediately in contention for, is winning percentage. Had Michigan played an additional 35 games (tying Texas for number of games played), its lead over the 118 seasons would be 26 games, not 1.
        Finally, Michigan has held the record for most wins in college football but only for the past decade (2001-2010). Prior to that Yale held that record for 113 consecutive seasons and 115 of the 142 seasons listed in the college football record book. Princeton led for 16 seasons and Rutgers for 7. Princeton, Yale, and Rutgers were often tied during the first 20 years.
        How did Michgan pass Yale? Through 1977, Yale had 95 more wins, a better winning percentage (0.76229 to Michigan's 0.73853) and played 108 more games and 5 more seasons than Michigan. In 1978, NCAA split Division I into I-A and I-AA (aka FBS and FCS). Since the split, MIchigan has chipped away at the lead with 0.72153 WL% to Yale's 0.55077, but also, since 1978, has averaged 2.3 games per year (112 total games) more than Yale. Had Yale played as many games as Michigan since the 1978 split and taking into account its lower winning percentage, Yale would still have a 2 win lead. Had Michigan played 112 fewer games (rather than Yale playing more games), the answer would substantially favor the Wolverines.
        It is not just the number of seasons or games played that put a team in competition for the record. Take for example, Penn. The University of Pennsylvania holds the record for the most number of games played at 1316, but ranks No. 27 in all time wins (809). Rutgers and Princeton are tied for the most seasons played at 141 each, but neither Rutgers with 613 wins (No. 50) and a 0.50478 winning percentage (No. 151) in 1256 nor Princeton with 789 wins (No. 12) and a 0.66941 winning percentage (No. 16) are in a position to challenge for either of the all time records, at least not on the generally accepted timeline.
        The point of those annecdotes is that changing the timelines for determining the records is a double edged sword. Depending on what is selected, one team may benefit, but if the selection is different, that same team will lose ground.
        In the first 11 years of football, from 1869 through 1879, 12 schools (of the current D-I schools) fielded teams: Princeton & Rutgers (1869), Columbia (1870), Yale (1872), Harvard & Virginia Military (1873), Northwestern (1875), Pennsylvania (1876), Michigan & Brown (1878), Massachusetts & Navy (1879).
        During the 25 years that followed, from 1880 through 1904, 127 additional schools fielding their first teams. That growth is explosive compared to the 105 schools added to the list in the subsequent 95 years from then to now (1905 through 2010).
        So much for the annecdotes. Now to play out the "what if" scenarios. Each scenario is based on unique and perhaps critical moments in college football history.  The data used include only current Division I programs. Division II and D-III may be added at a later date along with discontinued programs. However, it is believed that additional data will not have a significant impact on any of the analyses, hence, for now at least, the Division I data will suffice.
        The history of college gridiron football is usually divided into the Early Years (1869 through 1917), the Golden Age (1918 through 1950), and the Modern Era (1951 through present). For the purposes of discussion, those are further divided, based on significant events and rules changes.

        The Birth of Football (1869 - 1879)
 
        The rules of Association Football (ala soccer) were originally codified in England by the Football Association in 1863 although the origins of the game predate that milestone by at least a couple of decades and 1863 is also the date generally accepted as the formal birth of both Association Football and Rugby Football. The origin of Rubgy Football dates back to the mid-1700s but the rules as they are now known, specifically running with the ball, originated in the 1820s. The use of the name "Soccer" in place of "Association Football" started in the 1880s. The first Association Football club in the US was established in Boston in 1862. The earliest record of a Rugby Football club lists the founding in 1872 in San Francisco.
        The American Cival War, (aka, the War of Seccession; aka, the Great War of the Rebellion; aka, the Second War for American Independence), was concluded a mere 4 years prior to the generally recognized birth date of American Football. During the early years there were changes to the rules (e.g., placement of goal posts, size of the field, and number of players) that were tested on the field. Rules in effect at game time were usually the home team's version of rules and were variations or either soccer or rugby. Intercollegiate football during this era did not look too much different than the "mob football" played for several decades prior. Given that only 12 of the currently active Division I programs had teams, the use of the term "intercollegiate" is weak if not completely irrelevant.
        Most sources credit the first football game (and football's birth date) as played on November 6, 1869, in New Brunswick, NJ, between teams fielded by Rutgers and Princeton. Rutgers took the first match and Princeton won the second, played a week later. The first game is usually described with several footnotes. First and foremost, the game was played using soccer rules, with 25 players per side, no referees, and on a 100 yard long by 75 yard wide field. Other than the use of football in the game's name, there were no resemblances to "gridiron football" as we know it today in any aspect.
        In 1872 the first Rugby Football game (the true precursor to gridiron football) occurred between Yale and McGill (from Canada) with the game played using McGill's modified Rugby rules. In 1875, the first clash between 2 US college teams using the McGill rules took place.
        In 1876, the Massasoit Convention was held and the first standarized rules for intercolletgiate football were written. One result of this was the formation of the Intercollegiate Football Association that consisted of Yale, Columbia, and Princeton. Yale, the other participant at the Massasoit Convention did not join until 1879 due to a disagreement on the number of players per team on the field. In 1878, Walter Camp attended his first Massasoit Convention.
        In 1877, the first "uniform" was worn by L.P. Smock, a Princeton player, and hence the origin of the word smock: "a loose garment worn over one's clothes to protect them." The uniform was a tightly laced, partially padded tunic made of canvas.
        During the 11 seasons starting in 1869, Princeton set the pace with a 23-3-2 (0.85714) record. Princeton clearly dominated this period of time earning 9 National Titles. Yale earned 2 titles and Harvard earned 1.
        Why was 1869 selected as the first football game? The game in 1869 was not even based on Rugby, which is primarily where the rules of modern gridiron football originated. Would it not be more appropriate to declare as the first college football game the 1875 Tuffts versus Harvard? Perhaps, but the game in 1869 is significant for several reasons: (1) it was the first recorded football game by any rules between 2 college teams; (2) the colleges formed teams specifically to play each other; (3) the colleges played each other more than once; (4) the teams involved started playing on an annual basis. That the game was played using modified soccer rules and that the rules were not the same from one game to the next do not alter the games significance, but merely calls into question whether those games should be tallied in the gridiron record books. One could also argue that none of the games in this era should count in a gridiron football tally since rules do not seem similar at all to modern gridiron football rules. Given modern college football has its origens in Rugby rather than Soccer, the first intercollegiate football game with lineage to modern college football occurred in 1975.

        The Walter Camp Era (1880 - 1904)
 
        Walter Chauncey Camp (Yale player and coach) is universally heralded as the "Father Of American Football." He became a driving force at the Massasoit Conventions proposing and advocating rules that transformed McGill Rugby Football into a unique American sport.
        Thanks to Walter Camp:
        * In 1880, the number of players on the field was reduced from 15 to 11, the line of scrimmage and neutral zones were added, the positions of quarterback and center were added and the snap was added (the snap was not done with the hands, that came later);
        * In 1881 the field was set to the modern dimentions of 100 yards (120 yards including the endzones) bye 53 1/3 yards (some sources set the date as 1912);
        * In 1882, the "gridiron was establish with a first down requiring the gain of 5 yards in 3 downs. Aside from tackling (added in the McGill modified Rugby rules), this was the first true divergence from Rugby Football;
        * In 1883, scoring was established, the "try" became the touchdown and was worth 2 points, the PAT at 4 points, the safety at 1 point and the "goal" became the filed goal worth 5 points; and
        * Over the next decade the scoring was modified again with the TD = 4 pts, PAT = 2 pts, S = 2 pts, FG = 5 pts (1884), the 1st on-field official, the Referee was added (1885), the game was set to 2 halves of 45 minues each and a second official, the umpire was added plus the officials started getting paid (1887), and tackling below the waist was legalized (1888).
        Also, in 1888, the first athletic conference, the Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association (MIAA) was founded by Albion, Hillsdale, Olivet, and Michigan State (then called State Agricultural College). This is the oldest active NCAA conference (now in Division III).
        Over the next few years officials were issued whistles and stop watches (1889), a linesman was added (3rd on-field official) and dangerous formations such as the "flying wedge" were banned (1894), the number of backs in motion was limited to 1 (1896), and scoring was changed to TD = 5 pts, PAT = 1 pts, S = 2 pts, FG = 5 pts (1897).
        It is noteworthy that in 1896 the first helmet, made of leather, was invented and used by George Barclay of Lafayette College.
        Also, in 1896, the Intercollegiate Conference of Faculty Representatives (aka Western Conference, aka Big Nine, aka BIG Ten) was founded by Chicago, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, and Wisconsin. This is the oldest active NCAA Division I conference.
        The 1901 season ended with the first ever post-season bowl game, the Rose Bowl played on January 1, 1902 between Michigan and Stanford. Of all the bowls, the Rose has been played 97 times.
        1903 saw the first football stadium build by Harvard.
        1904 saw the first athletic scholarship for football issued by Amherst College.
        In 1904, scoring was again modified to TD = 5 pts, PAT = 1 pts, S = 2 pts, FG = 4 pts.
        During these 25 seasons, Yale was the dominant team with 257 wins in 280 games, 26 more than second place Princeton and a commanding 0.93750 winning percentage. This quarter century was dominated by Yale with 12 National Titles and Princeton with 11. A total of 35 titles were shared by just 6 teams.
        Why not choose 1880 as the birth of football? Walter Camp is known as the Father and he only started influencing the evolution of football in 1880. Certainly the rule changes made in the first few years considerably diverged gridiron football from Rugby football. Also, by the end of the 1904 season more than half of the currently active Division I schoole (138 out of 244) were fielding teams.
        During this quarter century, the game was substantially transformed, but was the game yet recognizable as similar to modern college gridiron football? 5 yards for a first down and 3 downs to get it done, a field goal and a touchdown both worth 5 points, and no forward pass, just for starters?

        The Dawn of Intercollegiate Football (1905 - 1917)
 
        Through 1904, the game evolved a great deal, but it still had strong ties to the days of "mob football" where the game was more about fighting than anything else. It was a brutal game by today's standards. In the 1905 season, there were more than 147 serious injuries and 18 deaths and that level of violence brought President Theodore Roosevelt to the brink of outlawing the game. The result of the Presidental intervention was the formation of the Intercollegiate Athletic Association (pre-cursor to the NCAA) in 1905 and the American Football Rules Committee in 1906.
        In 1906 a number of significant rules were put in place. The forward pass (equivalent to the lateral pass today) was added, the game was cut back to 2 halves of 30 minutes each, a first down required 10 yards in 3 downs, and protective gear, especially shoulder pads, became required equipment. In the next couple of years the Field Judge was first tried (1908) and field goals were reduced to 3 points (1909).
        In 1910, the Intercollegiate Athletic Association became the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA).
        In 1912, the touchdown was changed to 6 points.
        Other rule changes during the next few years included 7 men on the line of scrimmage (1910), a standardized football size and shape (1912), first down (10 yards) in 4 downs (1912), a penalty for roughing the passer added (1914) and the Field Judge permamently added as the 4th on-field official (1915).
        During those 13 seasons, both Harvard (123 games) and Pennsylvania (143 games) were tied with 100 wins and a solid lead for most wins. Ignoring Stanford, which posted a perfect 8 win season before discontinuing football until 1919 and Albany with 2 1-game seasons (both wins), the best winning percentage belonged to Notre Dame (0.85149). No longer is one team dominating. Harvard and Pittsburgh but eked a lead earning 3 National Titles each. 22 National Titles were shared by 13 different teams.
        There is a strong case for using 1905 as the start of college gridiron football. The significance of Roosevelt's intervention and the resulting formation of the IAA can not be ignored. The addition of the pass and the modern first down and the 6-point touchdown also aligned the game then much closer to game today.
        On the other hand, only lateral passes were allowed. The forward pass was yet to come.

        The Emergence of the Forward Pass (1918 - 1936)
 
        For the previous 5 years, Knute Rockney developed modern passing techniques and tactics including the overhand pass and effectively integrated the pass into the Notre Dame offense. Up to through 1917, very few teams were using the pass and even fewer had effective defensive tactics to counter the pass. However, the pass, first added in 1906, was only a lateral pass and there were penalties for incomplete passes.
        Over the next 17 years, rules changes resulted in passing being mainstreamed into college football. In 1918, eligible recerivers were allowed to catch a pass anywhere on the field, thus creating the first true forward pass. 1933 saw the removal of the rule limiting lateral passes to 5 yards or more behind the line of scrimmage and quarterbacks rather than fullbacks started taking the snaps from center. Penalties for incomplete passes were dropped in 1934.
        In 1927, the goal posts were moved to the back of the endzone to prevent injuries.
        In 1927, Glen "Pop" Warner publishes, "Football for Coaches and Players," one of the first comprehensive books on football strategy.
        In 1932, athletic scholarships become available.
        1934 saw the design of the modern football.
        The first AP poll was published in 1934. Except for the 1935-36 season, it has been published every year since.
        The first Heisman Trophy was awarded in 1935 to Jay Berwanger of the University of Chicago.
        1936 saw the first college football player (Jay Berwanger) drafted into the NFL.
        The 1934-35 season ended with the inaugural Orange Bowl: Bucknell vs Miami (FL); and the inaugural Sugar Bowl: Tulane vs Temple.
        The 1936-37 season added the Cotton Bowl: Texas Christian vs Marquette
        Those 3 bowls, along with the Rose Bowl, becamse the Big 4 of the Bowl games. There would be no new major bowls added until after World War II.
        During those 19 seasons, Southern California had the most wins (144 in 188 games) and Notre Dame had the best winning percentage of 0.82102. 44 National Titles were shared by 19 different teams with a 5-way tie for the most (4).
        By the end of the 1936 season, more than 200 of the currently active D-I schools were regularly fielding teams. With the exception of a few rules, football in 1936 was arguably the similar to the game we know today. But those few rules are not inconsequential.
        1918 is arguably one of the best dates for claiming football was actually football and in the almost 2 decades that followed, many events occurred for the first time that now are taken for granted but make the college gridiron experience what it is today. 

        The NCAA Era (1937 - 1950)
 
        By the end of the 1936 season, football had grown up, mostly. Over the next 14 seasons, a number of significant changes molded college gridiron football into what it is today.
        In 1937, numerals were required on all jerseys (front and back). Also, the NCAA divided teams into 2 divisons, The University Divsion (for large schools) and the College Division (for small schools). Later the University Division will become Division I. Unofficially, the University Division was subdivided into National and Regional programs.
        The most significant change in 1937 was the NCAA started collecting official game statistics. Prior to this, the records were provided by the individual schools and, however accurate those are, those are all there are prior to 1937.
        Another milestone significant to modern college football was the first televised game in 1939, Waynesburg vs. Fordham.
        Also in 1939, helmets became mandatory standard equipment and the first plastic helmet saw action in a game. By 1950, plastic helmet had completely replaced their leather counterparts.
        In 1941, platooning (separate offense, defense, and special teams) and unlimited substitutions were allowed and in 1945 athletic scholarships became standard.
        In 1950, the United Press published the first Coaches Poll. Subsequently the Coaches Poll has been published by UPI, USA Today/CNN, and now USA Today/ESPN.
        During those 14 seasons, Notre Dame led in both total wins (107 in 133 games) and winning percentage (0.83459). 13 different teams earned 21 titles with Notre Dame in the lead with 4.
        When the NCAA took over keeping the official records marks the point in time when those records were independently verified and the data consistently recorded and the information standardized. When discussing the legitimacy of all time records, this nexus can not be ignored. The transformation of college gridiron football during these years was not how it was played on the field, but rather in the oversight and management of the intercollegiate aspects of the game.

        The Modern Football Era (1951 - 1972)
 
        By most accounts, the modern era started with the 1951 season. Although there are good arguments for pushing the date back to the end of WWII, there is good reason not to. The influx of hundreds of thousands of veterans to schools all over the nation under the GI Bill (education) caused substantial changes to many of the schools. By the end of the 1950-51 academic year, the vast majority of those service men and woman had graduated and moved on. This is the only segment that does not commence with a significant event or major rule change. A compromise would be to push it back to 1950 given the Coaches Poll first published rankings for that season.
        In 1951, face masks were finally legalized.
        In 1953, the platooning first permitted in 1941, was effectively banned by the use of strict and limited substitution rules.
        In 1954, a limit of 10 games per season, excluding a bowl game, was imposed on all teams, with the exception that existing contracts would not be changed.
        In 1955, the 5th on-field official, the Back Judge, was added.
        In 1958, the 2 point conversion rule was added and in 1959, the goal posts were widened from 18' 6" to 23' 4".
        Things remained more or less the same until 1965 when platooning was restored and in 1965, the AP started ranking teams after the bowl games.
        Another refinement came in 1957 when the numerals on the jerseys became aligned with position and the number 50-79 were clearly identified as ineligible to receive a forward pass.
        In 1971, the limit of 10 games per season was increased to 11 games, but that limit did not include a bowl appearance or a conference chamionship game and a 12th game could be played outside the US mainland (Japan for example).
        In 1972, a Line Judge was added (6th on-field official).
        During those 22 seasons, Mississippi led with 174 wins in 237 games and Florida A&M had the best winning percentage (0.80556). 36 titles were shared by 19 teams with Ohio State (5) and Michigan State (4) earning the most.
        One can make strong cases for other dates, but the general concensus is that right after WWII, college football became the game as we know it.

        The Modern Divisions (1973 - 1977)
 
        In 1973, the NCAA Divisions I, II, and III were formed. In general, the University Division teams became D-I and the College Division teams became D-II (scholarships) and D-III (no scholarships). In 1973, Divisions II and III started the first college football division championship tournaments.
        In 1973, mouth protectors became required equipment.
        In those 5 seasons, Alabama led with 53 wins in 60 games and Oklahoma was best with a 0.89655 winning percentage. Earning 2 National Titles each were Notre Dame and Oklahoma.
        The formation of the modern intercollegiate divisions was significant. Parity was substantially improved. The establishment of championship tournaments makes for a strong argument that football prior to 1973 was just not the same.

        The Subdivisions (1978 - 1991)
 
        In 1978, Division I was split into D-IA (now FBS) and D-IAA (now FCS) with the division based on attendance numbers. The split generally matches the previous and unofficial National and/or Regional status of each team. In 1978 the D-IAA teams were no longer included in the AP and Coaches polls and no longer in competition for the Division I National Title. Hence, D-IAA instituted its own post-season championship tournament, while the D-IA teams continued to be honored with a National Title via the polls. It is significant that the Ivy League teams elected to not participate in the FCS tournament.
        In 1983, the Side Judge was added (7th on-field official).
        In 1988 the defensive 2 point conversion rule was added.
        In 1991, the goal posts reverted back to the pre-1958 18'6" spacing.
        In those 14 seasons, Dayton led with 140 wins in 168 games tied with Nebraska (140 wins in 171 games) and Brigham Young (140 wins in 180 games). Dayton also had the best winning percentage (0.84226). Nebraska had the best winning percentage for just the D-IA teams (0.82164). In FBS, 17 National Titles were shared by 12 teams with Miami (FL) leading with 4. In FCS, 14 National Titles were earned by 10 teams with Georgia Southern leading with 4.
        The significance of the split of Division I into what is essentially 2 separate divisions can not be trivialized. The legacy of the early east coast teams and their significance in the record books began to erode with the split.

        The Chamionship Era (1992 - present)
 
        Although the 1971 rules changed made the needed exception, the first Division I conference championship game did not get played until 1992.
        Also in 1992, the Bowl Coallition was formed with the goal of forcing a No. 1 versus No. 2 game in one of the major post-season bowls. Since the Rose Bowl along with the B1G Ten and Pac-12 (then Pac-10) did not join, this attempt failed.
        In 1995 the Bowl Alliance replaced the Bowl Coallition. It too did not succeed for the same reasons as the Bowl Coallition. Also, the so-called "mid-majors" continued to be excluded.
        In 1996 overtime rules were established that eliminated tie games.
        In 1998 the Bowl Championship Series replaced the Bowl Alliance. This time the Rose Bowl with the B1G Ten and the Pac-12 signed on. Also all D-IA conferences were included. Going forward, the National Title would be conveyed by the winner of the designated BCS Championship Game.
        In 2002, bowl game statistics were first included in the players' career totals.
        In 2006, the NCAA changed D-IA to FBS and D-IAA to FCS.
        In 2006, the BCS included a 5th bowl game exclusively for the BCS Championship match.
        In 2006 the season was increased to 12 games per season (excluding bowl & conference championship) with a 13th game allowance for an overseas game.
        Commencing with the 2008-09 season, the AP Poll included worthy FCS teams.
        In the 19 seasons of the Championship Era, Montana leads Division I with 205 wins in 256 games while Dayton holds the best winning percentage (0.80882). Among just the FBS programs, Florida leads with 191 wins in 245 games while Ohio State had the best winning percentage (0.79916). Amoung the FBS teams, 21 National Titles were shared by 14 teams with Florida and Nebraska both earning 3. In FCS, 19 National Titles were earned by 12 different teams. Appalachian State and Youngstown State earned 3 each.
        The single most significant change in college gridiron football was the instantiation of the so-called Championship Game, especially starting in 1998 where the honor of being called National Champion was the result of winning a high-profiled bowl game. Why is this significant? Because from that point forward, the goal of the season, in the minds of not just a few, was to get to that one game and to win it. Having a great season was no longer enough. Beating your rivals was no longer enough. Getting to/winning a bowl game was not enough. The mentality that sprang forth from that single change is that there absolutely must be 1 team designated as the best.

        The Winningest Teams In College Football History
 
        So when did football become college girdiron football or at least first resembled the game played today?
        Was it in 1872 when tackling was added to Rugby? Was it in 1880 when the number of players on the field for each team was reduced to 11? Did it begin when the quarterback was added or when the line of scrimmage bacame a rule? Was it in 1912 when 10 yards and 4 downs became the rule? Was it in 1918 when the true forward pass came into the game?
        Maybe it was 1905 when President Roosevelt required a major overhaul to the game.
        One serious concern is the evolution of scoring. One can only speculate on the number of wins and losses that would be changed if modern scoring had been used. Certainly a game with a field goal worth 5 points and a touch down worth 2 would not have ended with the same score using today's scoring. A strong case can be made that all games prior to 1912 (TDs became 6 points) are dubious. Lesser cases can be made for games prior to the 2-point conversion rule implemented in 1958 and a minor squack can be placed on games prior to the 1988 defensive 2 point confersion rule.
        All of these major rules changes effect the definition of the game and how the winningest title is derived.
        Another serious question is the veracity of the records prior to 1937 when the NCAA took over the record keeping job.
        A truely significant point in time was the 1978 split of Division IA into what are now called the FCS and FBS subdivisions. From that point forward such vital rules as the number of games in a season diverged and historically significant programs began to fall behind.
        So how does it resolve if a date other than 1869 is chosen as the birth date for college football? Using the eras as defined above, the following results are obtained:
 
        1869: Michigan (first game in 1878) with 884 wins and Michigan with a 0.73295 winning percentage
        1880: Michigan with 883 wins and Michigan with a 0.73293 winning percentage
        1905: Texas (first game in 1893) with 783 wins and Ohio State with a 0.73724 winning percentage
        1918: Alabama (first game in 1893) and Texas tied with 704 wins each and Ohio State with a 0.73592 winning percentage
        1937: Oklahoma (first game in 1895) with 618 wins and Oklahoma with a 0.74881 winning percentage
        1951: Oklahoma with 518 wins and Old Dominion with a 0.77273 winning percentage. Ohio State (0.76194) had the best winning percentage of the FBS teams.
        1973: Nebraska (first game in 1890) with 370 wins and Nebraska with a 0.78211 winning percentage
        1978: Nebraska with 324 wins and Dayton with a 0.82392 winning percentage. Nebraska (0.78382) had the best winning percentage of the FBS teams.
        1992: Montana (first game in 1897) with 205 wins and Dayton with a 0.80882 winning percentage. Florida (first game in 1906) had 191 wins, the most of the FBS teams and Ohio State (0.79916) had the best winning percentage of the FBS teams.
 
        A couple of other recognitions are in order. The teams with the most number of wins in a single season are the 1894 Yale team (16-0-0) and the 1899 Chicago team (16-0-2). Of the currently active FBS teams, Marshall has the most wins in a season (15-0-0). This was accomplished in the 1996-97 season. Marshall joined the ranks of the FBS in 1997. The team with the most games played in a single season is the 1894 Chicago team that posted an astonishing 15-7-1 record.
        No record book could be complete without including the team with the most number of winning seasons and the team with the highest percentage of winning seasons. A winning season does not include 0.50000 seasons. Michigan is No. 1 with 112 winning seasons out of 133 played. Boise State is No. 1 with a 0.86047 (37 of 43) record. Note: Georgia State in its first year posted a winning season and technically should be No. 1 in the winning percentage column.

        National Titles, Bowls and Polls (1869 - present)
 
        National Titles, bowl wins, and No. 1 rankings in the polls are additional ways of identifying the winningest team(s). Like the overall number of wins and winning percentages, the more modern the start date of an alternate point of view as to when college gridiron football sufficiently resembled the game as it is today, the more likely Bowl and National Title records would change.
        In 142 seasons of football, 216 Division I (including the University and College Divisions) National Titles have been awarded via polls or Title games (FBS) and another 33 Titles have been earned in the FCS Tournament. Princeton holds the all time Division I record of 26 National Titles. Notre Dame leads all FBS teams with 13 National Titles. Georgia Southern has won 6 of the 33 FCS Tournament Titles. Florida, Louisiana State, and Southern California each have 2 BCS Championship wins. Georgia Southern has been to the most FCS title games (8) and Oklahoma has been to the most BCS title games (4). Delaware is the only active Division I team to hold both a Division I title and either a Division II or a Division III title. There are 4 current FBS teams that hold FCS titles: Marshall (2), Boise State (1), Louisiana-Monroe (1), and Western Kentucky(1).
        There are currently 35 active FBS bowls, but there are also 33 FBS bowls that have ceased holding games. In addition, there are 5 minor bowls (D-IA, II, III) currently holding games and another 120-130 minor bowls that have shut down. 1756 bowl games (major and minor) have been played. Of the currently active Division I teams, 213 different teams have made 1 or more bowl appearances.
        Florida A&M holds the all time longest bowl streak of 49 appearances from the 1933-34 to the 1978-79 seasons. Nebraska all time longest D-IA bowl streak of 35 appearances from the 1969-70 to the 2003-04 seasons.
        Florida State has the longest active bowl streak of 29 appearances that started in the 1982-3 season. However, since Florida State vacated the 2006 Emerald Bowl, credit must be given to Florida with a streak of 20 appearances that started in the 1991-92 season.
        Florida State has the all time consecutive bowl winning streak of 11 wins from 1985-6 to 1995-6. Southern California boasts the longest currently active bowl winning streak of 4 wins that started in 2006-7 season.
        Alabama (first bowl in 1925-26) holds the record for most bowl games (58) and Southern California (first bowl in 1922) the most bowl wins (34). Florida A&M leads D-IAA with 51 bowl appearances and most bowl wins (28).
        21 teams have perfect bowl records. North Dakota leads all with 3 wins (and no losses). Florida Atlantic leads the FBS with 2 wins (and no losses).
        Tennessee State (first bowl in 1944-45) has the best bowl game winning percentage (0.85000) of all teams with 4 or more bowl appearances. Nevada-Las Vegas (first bowl appearance in 1974) leads all FBS teams with 4 or more bowl appearances with a 0.75000 winning percentage.
        The Associated Press (AP) started its reknown poll in 1934 and with the exception of 1935 has been ranking teams every year. Of the 76 seasons on record, 27 teams have been ranked No. 1 in the final poll. Notre Dame leads all with 8 No. 1 final season rankings.

        15 Decades of Winners
 
        There has been no team that, decade by decade, dominated Division I (either FBS or FCS) college football. What follows is a tabulation of which teams were on top during each 10 year interval.
 
Most Games Won
1869-1870 -- Princeton (2) & Rutgers (2)
1871-1880 -- Princeton (26); FBS only: Rutgers (11)
1881-1890 -- Yale (95); FBS only: Rutgers (23)
1891-1900 -- Pennsylvania (125); FBS only: Michigan (76)
1901-1910 -- Pennsylvania (97); FBS only Michigan (78)
1911-1920 -- Georgia Tech (69)
1921-1930 -- Southern California (89)
1931-1940 -- Tennessee (80)
1941-1950 -- Georgia (79) & Notre Dame (79)
1951-1960 -- Oklahoma (86) & Prairie View A&A (86)
1961-1970 -- Texas (89)
1971-1980 -- Alabama (107)
1981-1990 -- North Dakota State (111); FBS only: Nebraska (102)
1991-2000 -- Marshall (116), Note: Marshall moved up to D-IA in 1997
2001-2010 -- Boise State (114), Note: Boise State moved up to D-IA in 1996
 
Best Winning Percentage
1869-1870 -- Princeton (0.66667); FBS only: Rutgers (0.50000)
1871-1880 -- Princeton (0.88710); FBS only: Rutgers (0.43548)
1881-1890 -- Yale (0.95545); FBS only: Virginia (0.70588) **
1891-1900 -- Yale (0.93254); FBS only: Buffalo (0.79167)
1901-1910 -- Yale (0.91121); FBS only: Michigan (0.90000) **
1911-1920 -- Notre Dame (0.89241) **
1921-1930 -- Notre Dame (0.87245)
1931-1940 -- Morgan State (0.85897); FBS only: Alabama (0.83411)
1941-1950 -- Notre Dame (0.85052)
1951-1960 -- Florida A&M (0.88421); FBS only: Oklahoma (0.84135) **
1961-1970 -- San Diego State (0.86408)
1971-1980 -- Alabama (0.89167)
1981-1990 -- North Dakota State (0.86822); FBS only: Miami (FL) (0.84034)
1991-2000 -- Florida State (0.89113)
2001-2010 -- Boise State (0.87692)
 
** Special Recognition for Exceptional Win-Loss Record (< 10 games played)
1881-1890 -- Nebraska (2-0-0), Southern California (4-0-0), and Vanderbilt (1-0-0)
1901-1910 -- Prairie View A&M (1-0-0)
1911-1920 -- Duke (4-0-1) and Albany (2-0-0)
1951-1960 -- Gardner-Webb (2-0-0)
 
Most National Titles
1869-1870 -- Princeton (2)
1871-1880 -- Princeton (8)
1881-1890 -- Yale (7)
1891-1900 -- Princeton (4) & Yale (4)
1901-1910 -- Michigan (4)
1911-1920 -- Harvard (3) & Pittsbugh (3)
1921-1930 -- Alabama (3) & Notre Dame (3)
1931-1940 -- Minnesota (4)
1941-1950 -- Notre Dame (4)
1951-1960 -- Michigan State (2), Ohio State (2), & Oklahoma (2)
1961-1970 -- Alabama (3), Ohio State (3), Texas (3)
1971-1980 -- Alabama (3) & Southern California (3)
1981-1990 -- Georgia Southern (4); FBS only: Miami (FL) (3); also Augustana (IL) (4) in D-III and North Dakota State (5) in D-II
1991-2000 -- Youngstown State (4); FBS only: Nebraska (3); also Mount Union (5) in D-III and Northa Alabama (3) in D-II
2001-2010 -- Appalachian State (3); FBS only: Florida (2), Lousisiana State (2), Southern California (2); also Mount Union (5) in D-III and Grand Valley State (4) in D-II
 
Most Bowl Wins
1901-1910 -- Michigan (1)
1911-1920 -- California (1), Harvard (1), Oregon (1), Washington State (1)
1921-1930 -- Southern California (3)
1931-1940 -- Prairie View A&M (8); FBS only: Southern California (5) ++
1941-1950 -- Grambling State (5) & Prairie View A&M (5); FBS only: Georgia (4), Hawaii (4), & Texas (4) ++
1951-1960 -- Prairie View A&M (10); FBS only: Georgia Tech (6) ++
1961-1970 -- Louisiana State (6) & Texas (6) ++
1971-1980 -- Florida A&M (9); FBS only: Oklahoma (7) & Southern California (7) ++
1981-1990 -- Florida State (8) ++
1991-2000 -- Penn State (7) & Wisconsin (7) ++
2001-2010 -- Utah (8) ++
 
++ Special Recogniztion 10 Consecutive Bowl Appearances
1931-1940 -- Prairie View A&M (8-3-0)
1941-1950 -- Florida A&M (3-7-1) & Prairie View A&M (5-6-0)
1951-1960 -- Florida A&M (6-4-0) & Prairie View A&M (10-2-1)
1961-1970 -- Alabama (5-4-1), Florida A&M (5-5-0), & MIssissippi (4-6-0)
1971-1980 -- Alabama (6-4-0), Nebraska (7-3-0), Y Penn State (6-4-0)
1981-1990 -- Brigham Young (4-6-0), Michigan (5-5-0), & Nebraska (3-7-0)
1991-2000 -- Florida (5-5-0), Florida State (7-3-0), Michigan (7-3-0), Nebraska (6-4-0), Tennessee (5-5-0)
2001-2010 -- Boston College (7-3-0), Florida (6-4-0), Florida State (6-4-0), Georgia (7-3-0), Georgia Tech (3-7-0), Louisiana State (7-3-0), Ohio State (6-4-0), Oklahoma (5-5-0), Texas Tech (7-3-0)

        Synapses
 
        The record books show Michigan as the front runner on 4 occasions: (1) Only bowl win/bowl game in the 1901-1910 decade; (2) 4 National Titles in the 1901-1910 decade; (3) Most wins if counting starts in 1893 or earlier; and (4) Best winning percentage if counting starts in 1899 or earlier.
        Alabama holds the record of most bowl appearances (58). Southern California holds the record of most bowl wins (34). Florida A&M holds the all time longest bowl streak of 49 appearances. Florida State has the all time consecutive bowl winning streak of 11 wins.
        Princeton holds the all time record for National Championship Titles (26). Notre Dame leads all FBS teams with 13 titles and has ended the season 8 times ranked No. 1 in the AP poll, more often than any other team.
        Yale held the record for the most all-time wins for 116 of the 142 seasons of record. Michigan has held the record for the last 10 seasons only.
        Yale held the record for best all-time winning percentage for 37 of the 142 seasons and Notre Dame held the record for 35 seasons. Michigan has held the record for the last 4 seasons and a total of 6 seasons.
        It is clear that the Wolverines have not always been the ranked as the winningest program in college football history. Certainly the 2 records have been earned, and neither is easy or quick. However, ascention to the No. 1 spot is a recent accomlishment.
        The records, also, are tenuous at best. The 19 game lead over Yale is less than 2 seasons of games. Over the last 4 seasons, Yale has closed the gap by 2 wins. Texas has closed the gap by 27 wins from 61 to 34 in the past decade. The slim lead in winning percentage over Notre Dame can be lost in the 2011 season.
        Michigan's true accomplishment is fielding winning teams year after year for nearly 14 decades. Michigan has 112 winning seasons (> 0.50000), more than any other currently active Division I team.

        Conclusion
 
        Michigan's records of most all-time wins and best all-time winning percentage are legitimate. What is called into question is the definition of "winningest."
        The arbitrary selection of 1869 for the first college football game is a bit awkward since the rules did not evolve to the game as it's currently played until decades later. A game with a 2 point touchdown and a 5 point field goal is just not the same game. Lacking a quarterback, a snap from center, and a forward pass makes the game too unlike the game as it is today.
        What is needed is an augmentation, a second set of legitimate records that include only those games that are recognizable as college gridiron football in play, in the rules, and in the scoring. It seems the more appropriate start date for keeping these new records should be 1951. Arguments for starting the record on other dates are legitimate and make valid points and organizational changes made since the inception of NCAA in 1937 (the latest being the 2006 increase to 12 games per season and the addition of a 5th bowl for the BCS Title game) should be part of the debate.

Time to go out on a limb. How many of you will dare to publically commit?
At the end of the season, I will compare predictions to realities.

WEEK 1 PREDICTIONS
 
Nevada-Las Vegas at Wisconsin -- Badgers win.
Youngstown State at Michigan State -- Spartans win.
Northwestern at Boston College -- Eagles win. BC and NU are essentially equal on paper. The deciding factors are (1) a new Wildcat quarterback and (2) the game is at BC.
Arkansas State at Illinois -- Illini win.
Ball State vs. Indiana -- Cardinals win. BSU and IU are essentially equal on paper. The deciding factors are (1) 21 returning starters for BSU versus 14 for IU, (2) a new Hoosier quarterback, (3) a new IU head coach and those more than offset the IU home field advantage.
Tennessee Tech at Iowa -- Hawkeyes win.
Western Michigan at Michigan -- Wolverines win. Michigan is the better team on paper, but there are reasons to anticipate the potential upset: (1) UM is just emerging from a significant off the field drama, (2) UM has a new head coach, (3) UM defense has been on the carousel for 4 years and looks like this year will add to that streak, (4) UM is a young group that has not managed to play much as a team over the past 3 years and is somewhat lacking in senior leadership, and (5) Coach Hoke has not been successful in his first season at either Ball State (4-8-0) or San Diego State (4-8-0).
Tennessee-Chattanooga at Nebraska -- Cornhuskers win.
Akron at Ohio State -- Buckeyes win. Given the player suspensions and the associated drama/distractions of the NCAA investigation, had this game been at Akron, it would have been a difficult call.
Indiana State at Penn State -- Nittany Lions win.
Middle Tennessee State at Purdue -- Blue Raiders win. MTSU returns the more experienced team. PU is on a 6-game skid and is breaking in a new quarterback. Given the Boilermaker home field advantage this is almost predicting and upset, especially since MTSU has never beaten a B1G Ten team.
Minnesota at Southern California -- Trojans win.
South Florida at Notre Dame -- Fighting Irish win. The Fighting Irish home field advantage tips the balance of this otherwise evenly matched contest. Were the game at SFU, the Bulls would get the call.
 
WEEK 2 PREDICTIONS
 
South Dakota State at Illinois -- Illini win.
Virginia at Indiana -- Hoosiers win. This is an upset in the making. The IU home field advantage is offset by the coaching change. The Cavaliers both are on a 4-game losing streak and starting a new quarterback and that tips the balance in favor of the Hoosiers.
Iowa at Iowa State -- Hawkeyes win.
Notre Dame at Michigan -- Fighting Irish win. ND is the better team on paper and with the exceptions of starting a new quarterback and the game at UM have everything going their way. See WEEK 1, Western Michigan at Michigan for the Wolverine vulnerabilities.
Florida Atlantic at Michigan State -- Spartans win.
New Mexico State at Minnesota -- Golden Gophers win. This could be another upset waiting to happen. Both teams were in the bottom quartile last season, but NMSU brings back the more experienced team and Minnesota has a coaching change to offset the home field advantage. That said, the Aggies have not beaten a big school team in a long time.
Fresno State at Nebraska -- Cornhuskers win. FSU and Nebraska are not that disparant on paper, but Nebraska is the better team with the home field advantage.Don't be surprised if the Bulldogs give the Cornhuskers a good game.
Eastern Illinois at Northwestern -- Wildcats win.
Toledo at Ohio State -- Buckeyes win. OSU has won the prior 2 matches by a combined score of 87-0. While almost every factor favors OSU, do not be surprised if the Rockets give the Buckeyes a bit of a scare.
Alabama at Penn State -- Nittany Lions win. If this game were later in the season, the Crimson Tide would get the nod. PSU brings back the more experienced team and has the home field advantage. UA has a slightly better team on paper, but has a lot of vacancies to fill on both sides of the ball. Upset alert given for this one, though.
Purdue at Rice -- The Owls win. Purdue is slightly better on paper, but starts a new quarterback and Rice has the home field advantage and returns a slightly more experienced team.
Oregon State at Wisconsin -- Badgers win.
 
WEEK 3 PREDICTIONS
 
Northwestern at Army -- Black Knights win. The new Wildcat quarterback and the Army home field advantage will be enough.
Arizona State at Illinois -- Illini win. By week 3, a new quarterback should be settled in. However, the new Sun Devil coach and the Illini home field advantage favor a somewhat better, somewhat more experienced Illini team.
South Carolina State at Indiana -- Hoosiers win. Barely.
Pittsburgh at Iowa -- Hawkeyes win. By week 3, a new quarterback should be settled in. However, the new Panthers coach and the Hawkeye home field advantage favor a slightly better, slightly more experienced Iowa team.
Ohio State at Miami (FL) -- Hurricanes win in an upset. In spite of the Miami coaching change, the home field advantage and the OSU coach/player suspensions make the Buckeyes vulnerable and without their best senior leaders, they stumble.
Eastern Michigan at Michigan -- Wolverines win.
Miami (OH) at Minnesota -- Redhawks win. The only advantage Minnesota has is the home field and that will prove to be insufficient.
Washington at Nebraska -- Cornhuskers win. Barely.
Michigan State at Notre Dame -- Spartans win. The Fighting Irish home field advantage has been something the Spartans have overcome in recent times. The Spartans hold the record of 6 consecutive wins in South Bend with that streak ended in 2009 in a game that literally came down to the last play. In the last 3 games, the home team has won, but in the prior 6 games, the visiting team won. The Spartans are coming off their best season in school history with the talent to reload the positions vacated by graduation. ND will be starting a new quarterback. Given the nature of this game, an upset alert is declared.
Southeast Missouri State at Purdue -- Boilermakers win. This is the most probable upset in the first 3 weeks.
Penn State at Temple -- Nittany Lions win. The streak goes to 29.
Northern Illinois vs. Wisconsin -- Badgers win. Barely. New Huskies coach and Badgers home field advantage tip the balance.
 
WEEK 4 PREDICTIONS
 
Northwestern -
Purdue -
Western Michigan at Illinois -- Illini win. Hard to envision Illinois starting 4-0, but it looks like it could happen.
Louisiana-Monroe at Iowa -- Hawkeyes win.
San Diego State at Michigan -- Aztecs win. Barely. Both teams have new coaches with the added twist that Coach Hoke of Michigan came from SDSU. On paper, SDSU is the better team. See WEEK 1, Western Michigan at Michigan for the Wolverine vulnerabilities.
Central Michigan at Michigan State -- Spartans win. This is not the same Chippewa team that upset the Spartans in 2009.
North Dakota State at Minnesota -- Golden Gophers win. NDSU should win, but the call is for the upset.
Indiana at North Texas -- Mean Green wins. Barely. Home field advantage tips the decision.
Colorado at Ohio State -- Buckeys win.
Eastern Michigan at Penn State -- Nittany Lions win.
South Dakota at Wisconsin -- Badgers win.
Nebraska at Wyoming -- Cornhuskers win.
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh -- Panthers win. Barely. Home field advantage tips the scales.
 
WEEK 5 PREDICTIONS
 
Iowa -
Northwestern at Illinois -- Illini win. The Wildcat bye week is not enough.
Michigan State at Ohio State -- Spartans win. Barely. The Buckeyes will have the NCAA drama and the distraction of 5 suspended players plus head coach getting ready to rejoin the team immediately after the game. This game deserves an upset alert.
Nebraska at Wisconsin -- Badgers. Home field advantage is the difference. This game also deserves an upset alert.
Penn State at Indiana -- Nittany Lions win.
Minnesota at Michigan -- Wolverines win.
Notre Dame at Purdue -- Fighting Irish win.
 
WEEK 6 PREDICTIONS
 
Michigan State -
Wisconsin -
Ohio State at Nebraska -- Cornhuskers win. OSU has 5 key players that missed the first 5 games now starting.
Iowa at Penn State -- Hawkeyes win.
Minnesota at Purdue -- Boilermakers win.
Illinois at Indiana -- Illini win.
Michigan at Northwestern -- Wildcats win. The only differences between these 2 teams in 2010 was the degree of the bowl loss. The only differences between the 2 teams on paper for 2011 are the new Wildcat quarterback and the new Wolverine head coach. See WEEK 1, Western Michigan at Michigan for the Wolverine vulnerabilities. This game warrents an upset alert.
Air Force at Notre Dame -- Fighting Irish win. If the game were in other than South Bend, the call would go to the Falcons. Upset alert.
 
WEEK 7 PREDICTIONS
 
Minnesota -
Nebraska -
Notre Dame -
Ohio State at Illinois -- Buckeyes win.
Northwestern at Iowa -- Hawkeyes win.
Michigan at Michigan State -- Spartans win. 3 prior games won by a combined 95-53. Wolverine defense should be improved but the offense will be a slight bit less and there may be signs of life on special teams. The Spartans are better everywhere. See WEEK 1, Western Michigan at Michigan for the Wolverine vulnerabilities.
Purdue at Penn State -- Nittany Lions win.
Indiana at Wisconsin -- Badgers win.
 
WEEK 8 PREDICTIONS
 
Michigan -
Ohio State -
Indiana at Iowa -- Hawkeyes win.
Wisconsin at Michigan State -- Spartans win. Home field advantage is the difference. This game warrents an upset alert.
Penn State at Northwestern -- Nittany Lions win. Barely.
Nebraska at Minnesota -- Cornhuskers win.
Illinois at Purdue -- Boilermakers win. By rights the Illini should win, but this will be an upset.
Southern California at Notre Dame -- Trojans win. And get vengence for last season's loss.
 
WEEK 9 PREDICTIONS
 
Northwestern at Indiana -- Hoosiers win. Home field advantage tips the balance.
Purdue at Michigan -- Wolverines win.
Iowa at Minnesota -- Hawkeyes win.
Michigan State at Nebraska -- Spartans win. Barely. If the Spartans are 7-0 going into this game, and they may well be, then they will have momentum and confidence sufficient to overcome the Nebraska home field advantage. The great unknown is how badly beat up will the Spartans be from the prior week versus Wisconsin. Another upset alert.
Wisconsin at Ohio State -- Buckeyes win.  And get vengence for last season's loss.
Illinois at Penn State -- Nittany Lions win. State College is a definite home field advantage.
Navy at Notre Dame -- Fighting Irish win. 3 factors. ND home field advantage offsets what remains of bringing a new QB up to speed (should have been settled in the early weeks of the season) AND the Fighting Irish just will not allow the Midshipmen to get the three-fer.
 
WEEK 10 PREDICTIONS
 
Illinois -
Penn State -
Michigan at Iowa -- Hawkeyes win.
Minnesota at Michigan State -- Spartans win.
Northwestern at Nebraska -- Cornhuskers win.
Indiana at Ohio State -- Buckeyes win.
Purdue at Wisconsin -- Badgers win.
Notre Dame at Wake Forest -- Fighting Irish win.
 
WEEK 11 PREDICTIONS
 
Michigan at Illinois -- Illini win. Wolverines come off a tough loss at Iowa to meet a rested Illinois team at Illinois.
Wisconsin at Minnesota -- Badgers win.
Nebraska at Penn State -- Nittany Lions win. PSU should have good momentum going into this game and Nebraska will face a rested Paterno team. Home field advantage tips it to PSU.
Michigan State at Iowa -- Spartans win. Barely. This is the most difficult game of the entire season to call. Hawkeyes enjoy the home field advantage for the second week in a row. Spartans come off what should be an easy win over the Golden Gophers. Iowa collapsed after trouncing the Spartans in what was really a 3 play game. The Spartans and Hawkeyes should both be unbeaten going into the game and if that is the case, there will be a ton of distractions for each team. On paper, the teams are evenly matched. The win is given to the Spartans who should want it more, who should be itching for revenge. Major upset alert set for this one. Showdown in Iowa City!
Ohio State at Purdue -- Buckeyes win.
Rice at Northwestern -- Wildcats win.
Maryland at Notre Dame -- Fighting Irish win. Calling an upset alert.
 
WEEK 12 PREDICTIONS
 
Indiana at Michigan State -- Spartans win.
Iowa at Purdue -- Hawkeyes win.
Wisconsin at Illinois -- Badgers win. Barely.
Nebraska at Michigan -- Cornhuskers win.
Minnesota at Northwestern -- Wildcats win.
Penn State at Ohio State -- Buckeyes win. Barely. Penn State will becoming off a tough win versus Nebraska. OSU home field advantage tips the scale.
Boston College at Notre Dame -- Fighting Irish win.
 
WEEK 13 PREDICTIONS
 
Iowa at Nebraska -- Cornhuskers win.
Ohio State at Michigan -- Buckeyes win.
Illinois at Minnesota -- Illini win.
Purdue at Indiana -- Hoosiers win.
Michigan State at Northwestern -- Spartans win.
Penn State at Wisconsin -- Badgers win.
Notre Dame at Stanford -- Cardinals win.
 
WEEK 14 PREDICTIONS
(revised 6/27/2011)
 
The natural consequences of all of the above being correct is that the B1G Ten Championship will be:
Michigan State 13-0, 9-0, 5-0
Versus on of:
Ohio State 9-3, 6-2, 5-0
Wisconsin 10-2, 6-2, 4-1
 
Division standings are based on each team's overall conference record. In the event that two teams are tied, the head-to-head results between those two teams determines the tiebreaker.
 
Three or more-team procedure
 1. Collective head-to-head record among all tied teams.
 2. Record of the tied teams within the division.
 3. BCS Component.
 
Ohio State won the head-to-head and gets the nod.
(revised 6/27/2011)
  
Michigan State beat Ohio State in Week 5 and does so again for the Championship game.
(revised 6/27/2011)
  
FINAL CONFERENCE STANDINGS:
(revised 6/27/2011)
  
No.  1  Michigan State 13-0, 9-0, 6-0 (B1G Ten Champion)
No.  2  Ohio State 9-4, 6-3, 5-0
No.  2  Wisconsin 10-2, 6-2, 4-1
No.  2  Iowa 10-2, 6-2, 3-2
No.  5  Nebraska 9-3, 5-3, 4-1
No.  5  Penn State 9-3, 5-3, 3-2
No.  7  Illinois 8-4, 4-4, 1-4
No.  8  Michigan 4-8, 2-6, 1-4
No.  8  Northwestern 4-8, 2-6, 2-3
No.  8  Indiana 4-8, 2-6, 1-4
No.  8  Purdue 3-9, 2-6, 1-4
No.  12  Minnesota 2-10, 0-8, 0-5
 
WEEK 15 PREDICTIONS
 
Navy at Army -- Midshipment win.

Again this year, we will be running the "You Make The Call" contest.
 
YMTC is a simple contest. Contestants predict scores for the games in the Big Ten. Whoever does best is declared the winner for the week and we all grovel because the winner is just so good at this! Points for correct calls (W/L) and point scored and margin of victory with bonus points for calling shut-outs and overtime games. ND games are included as tie-breakers (only when ND is not playing a B1G opponent). This year the B1G Championship game is added to the mix. Also, as before, the Army-Navy game will entertain us until the bowl bids come out. All in all, the contest lasts through all 20 weeks of college football.
 
There are 2 rules.
1. No smack, trash talk, disparaging remarks made about teams, schools, or fans/contestants. Violators will be banned from the contest and all records of their participation deleted from the game records.
2. Ballots will CLEARLY name the winning team.
 
Acceptable: Nevada-Las Vegas 13 at Wisconsin 21
Acceptable: Wisconsin 21-13
Acceptable: Nevada-Las Vegas at Wisconsin 13-21
Unacceptable: Nevada-Las Vegas at Wisconsin 21-13 (This will be understood as UNLV winning by 8.)
 
As game moderator (and founder/inventor/executer), MSUSpartan76 is the final word on all game related decisions, including interpretation of ballots.
 
The motto of this contest is "All for fun and fun for all." We intend to keep it that way.
 
So, with that said, the following is a synapsis of the upcoming B1G season. Vitals (sans individual players) are given and pre-seaons predictions for every game are made. The author reserves the right to change these predictions week by week during the YMTC contest since things do evolve, teams gel, players get hurt, etc., during the course of a season.
 

So what can be done with the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) to improve it?
 
WAIT!!! Put your "need a play-off" comments elsewhere.
Whether your points on a playoff/post-season tournament are valid or not is not germane to this discussion.
A playoff is not going to come about any time soon for many rock solid reasons that most do not care to accept.
 
What this is about is how to improve the existing BCS within the constraints of practicalities.
 
The BCS consists of ranking system and rules through which teams are selected to fill 4 of the 34 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) recognoized post-season bowls plus the BCS Championship game.
 
The first thing that must be understood is that the BCS does not control any of the 35 bowl games or which teams play where. That is done by the Football Bowl Association.

What the BCS does do is designate which 2 teams will play in the BCS Championship game and determine which teams get automatic bids (AB) and at large bids to the BCS designated bowls (Rose, Orange, Fiesta, and Sugar).

The tie-ins for the Rose, Orange, Fiesta, and Sugar bowls comes from historical/legacy contractual obligations. (The conferences with those tie-ins obviously do not wish to give up their cash cows, which is the primary reason things will not change, at least not quickly.) The FBA is responsible for designating conference tie-ins with the other 30 bowls.
 
The selection of which teams play in which BCS bowl is through a set of rules, the basics of which are:
 (a) BCS No. 1 plays BCS No. 2 in the BCS Championship game
 (b) No conference may have more than 2 teams in BCS bowls unless the conference has 2 teams in the BCS Championship game and neither of those 2 are the designated conference champion
 (c) 6 conferences (Big Ten, Pacific 10, Big XII, Atlantic Coast, Big East, and Southeastern) get automatic bids (AB) for their designated conference champion if that team is bowl eligible (6 wins)
 (d) only 1 of the other 5 FBS conferences can get an automatic bid under specific conditions
 (e) Notre Dame can get an automatic bid if ranked in the top 8
 (f) There are a few other specific conditions for automatic bids such as the BCS No. 3 (or No. 4) gets an automatic bid if not the conference champion
 (g) To fill any openings in the 10 invitations, a series of at large rules are applied starting with a top 14 BCS ranking and 9 wins
 
The BCS rankings are determined by averaging results from the Coaches Poll, the Harris Poll, and an average of computer rankings.
The Coaches Poll is conducted by USA Today, a news company, and is based on the voting of 59 active FBS coaches. Approximately 1/2 of the FBS teams are voters. How the coaches are selected was not found by internet search.
The Harris Poll is conducted by Harris Interactive, Marketing Research company, and is based on the voting of 114 panelists. The panelists are former coaches, players, administrators and former and current media persons. The panelists are randomly drawn from 300 names submitted by the 11 conferences and independents.
The computer rankings are derived from 6 computer programs (Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey, Jeff Sagarin, and Peter Wolfe). Prior to averaging, the highest and lowest scores are thrown out and the remaining 4 are averaged. A percentage is calculated based on a maximum of 100 points with a 1st place vote being worth 25 points.

So, then what are the objectives? Or better still, what should be the objectives?

One, obviously, is to ensure the best 2 teams get into the BCS Championship game.
Another would be to ensure the most worthy teams get into the best bowls.
How about trying to make the contests evenly matched so the games are as entertaining as possible?
It is all about money, nowadays, so how about some fairness, an equitible cash disbersement in an attempt to better achieve parity?

Some proposed improvements. Most of these can be implemented independent of the others. All will make some kind of improvement with very low risk of unwanted side effects.

1. Rank the bowl games and schedule them in order of rank. It is interesting that there are some secondary bowls scheduled between the BCS big 4 and the BCS NCG.
2. Any team that schedules a Football Championship Subdivision (FCS, aka D-IAA) team should be penalized in the BCS rankings, win or lose.
3. Any team that does not schedule at least 1 team from an automatic bid conference as one of its out-of-conference (OOC) games is disqualified from BCS bowl selection.
4. A team that plays (win or lose) 2 or more AB teams OOC improves its BCS ranking.
5. All OOC road games count more than OOC home games. (All conferences already try to be equitable with home and away games, so there should be no penalty or reward for conference games.)
6. For the BCS rankings, add 4 more human polls and, like is done with the computer rankings, throw out the highest and the lowest scores for each team and average to make 1 human (average of 4) poll that is then averaged with the 1 computer (average of 4) poll.
7. Allow the computer rankings to include margin of victory (MoV), but only benefitting a team up to a point. Any win by greater than 2 TDs counts as a 2-TD MoV. Ok, maybe 3 TD, but there needs to be a cap.
8. Weigh the 6 human pols and the 6 computer rankings by how well they predict games. In stead of throwing out the highest and lowest scores, thow out the 2 worst performers for each.
9. To receive a conference champion AB, the team shall at least meet the minimum requirements for At Large consideration (BCS Top 14, 9 wins).
10. To be BCS eligible, even for the AB conference champions, the team shall have won at least 9 games versus FBS teams.
11. Add 2 more BCS bowls. Each conference, plus an independent, has an opportunity to have its champion qualify for an automatic bid. For a conference champion to get the AB, it must be ranked in the FCS Top 20, have at least 9 wins versus FBS teams, no losses to FCS teams, and at least 2 OOC road games. If a conference champion does not qualify, then the berth is filled by the highest BCS ranked uncommitted team. Conferences are limited to 4 teams getting BCS invitations.
*or*
12. Add 4 BCS bowls. Each conference champion gets an AB. The highest ranked independent gets an AB. The 4 at large are the highest BCS ranked uncommitted teams. No. 1 playes No. 2. 3 plays 4 and so on. The 2 teams with the best (best is a set of metrics, such as total yards, margin of victory, red zone efficiency, whatever) play in the BCS Championship Game. Yes, this is a "plus one" format.
 
Any other ideas?
Comments?
 
Hate this or love this, but please leave the play-off comments out. A play-off just is not going to happen.

Capital One Bowl
 
BCS No. 9 Michigan State Spartans versus BCS No. 16 Alabama Crimson Tide

This is the first meeting of the 2 teams.
 
Team Records
 
Michigan State
CBS No. 7 Michigan State, Big Ten (11-1, 7-1) and is rated the No. 37 SOS per CBS.
MSU has averaged 31.3 ppg while giving up 20.1 ppg (11.2 ppg MoV).
MSU is on a 3-game winning streak.
 
W 38-14 vs CBS No. 82 Western Michigan, MidAmerican (6-6, 5-3) and is rated the No. 107 SOS.
W 30-17 at CBS No. 101 Florida Atlantic, Sun Belt (4-8, 3-5) and is rated the No. 114 SOS. ("Neutral site", Ford Field)
W 34-31 vs CBS No. 36 Notre Dame, Independent (7-5, 1-1) and is rated the No. 3 SOS.
W 45-7 vs FCS Northern Colorado, Big Sky (3-8, 2-6).
W 34-24 vs CBS No. 4 Wisconsin, Big Ten (11-1, 7-1) and is rated the No. 62 SOS.
W 34-17 at CBS No. 44 Michigan, Big Ten  (7-5, 3-5) and is rated the No. 13 SOS.
W 26-6 vs CBS No. 54 Illinois, Big Ten (6-6, 4-4) and is rated the No. 12 SOS.
W 35-27 at CBS No. 48 Northwestern, Big Ten (7-5, 3-5) and is rated the No. 76 SOS.
L 6-37 at CBS No. 46 Iowa, Big Ten (7-5, 4-4) and is rated the No. 18 SOS.
W 31-8 vs CBS No. 90 Minnesota, Big Ten (3-9, 2-6) and is rated the No. 10 SOS.
(bye week)
W 35-31 vs CBS No. 88 Purdue, Big Ten (4-8, 2-6) and is rated the No. 20 SOS.
W 28-22 at CBS No. 35 Penn State, Big Ten  (7-5, 4-4) and is rated the No. 15 SOS.
 
Alabama
CBS No. 18 Alabama, Southeastern (9-3, 5-3) and is rated the No. 11 SOS per CBS.
UA has averaged 34.6 ppg while giving up 14.1 ppg (20.5 ppg MoV)
UA is on a 1-game losing streak and lost 3 of the past 7 games.
 
W 48-3 vs CBS No. 120 San Jose State, Western Athletic (1-12, 0-8) and is rated the No. 19 SOS.
W 24-3 vs CBS No. 35 Penn State, Big Ten  (7-5, 4-4) and is rated the No. 15 SOS.
W 62-13 at CBS No. 93 Duke, Atlantic Coast (3-9, 1-7) and is rated the No. 54 SOS.
W 24-20 at CBS No. 8 Arkansas, Southeastern (10-2, 6-2) and is rated the No. 5 SOS.
W 31-6 vs CBS No. 43 Florida, Southeastern (7-5, 4-4) and is rated the No. 17 SOS.
L 21-35 at CBS No. 19 South Carolina, Southeastern (9-4, 5-4) and is rated the No. 2 SOS.
W 23-10 vs CBS No. 79 Mississippi, Southeastern (4-8, 1-7) and is rated the No. 34 SOS.
W 41-10 at CBS No. 60 Tennessee, Southeastern (6-6, 3-5) and is rated the No. 57 SOS.
(bye week)
L 21-24 at CBS No. 12 Louisiana State, Southeastern (10-2, 6-2) and is rated the No. 6 SOS.
W 30-10 vs CBS No. 21 Mississippi State, Southeastern (8-4, 4-4) and is rated the No. 25 SOS.
W 63-7 vs FCS Georgia State, Colonial (6-5, 0-0) played its inaugural season in 2010.
L 27-28 vs CBS No. 2 Auburn, Southeastern (13-0, 9-0) and is rated the No. 4 SOS.
 
Team Statistics
 
Michigan State      
Rushing Offense: 168.83 yds/gm (No. 40), 4.87 yds/rush, 1 TD per 16.6 rushes
Passing Offense: 237.83 yds/gm (No. 44), 67%, 8.30 yds/att, 12.41 yds/comp, 2.62% int/att, 1 TD per 15.6 att
Total Offense: 406.67 yds/gm (No. 39), 6.42 yds/play
Scoring Offense: 31.33 pts/gm (No. 39), 0.495 pts/play
Passing Efficiency: 152.46 (No. 17)
 
Rushing Defense: 121.92 yds/gm (No. 21), 3.59 yds/rush, 1 TD per 40.7 rushes
Pass Defense: 215.83 yds/gm (No. 60), 56%, 6.49 yds/att, 11.56 yds/comp, 4.26% int/att, 1 TD per 23.5 att
Total Defense: 337.75 yds/gm (No. 31), 5.03 yds/play
Scoring Defense: 20.08 pts/gm (No. 26), 0.299 pts/play
Pass Efficiency Defense: 116.99 (No. 33)
 
Net Punting: 38.22 yds/p (No. 26)
Punt Returns: 12.89 yds/r (No. 16)
Kickoff Returns: 18.79 yds/r (No. 110)
Turnover Margin: 0.5 TO/gm (No. T-26)
Sacks: 1.67 s/gm (No. T-82)
Tackles For Loss: 5.17 t/gm (No. T-87)
Sacks Allowed: 1.58 s/gm (No. 40)
 
Red zone offense (No. 5): 43 drives, 39 scores (91%), 30 TD (17 rush, 13 pass), 9 FG
Red Zone defense (No. 13): 41 drives 30 scores (73%), 21 TD (8 rush, 13 pass), 9 FG
  
Alabama      
Rushing Offense: 175.25 yds/gm (No. 36), 4.97 yds/rush, 1 TD per 17.6 rushes
Passing Offense: 260.33 yds/gm (No. 28), 69%, 9.22 yds/att, 13.35 yds/comp, 1.47% int/att, 1 TD per 14.7 att
Total Offense: 435.58 yds/gm (No. 27), 6.86 yds/play
Scoring Offense: 34.58 pts/gm (No. 21), 0.545 pts/play
Passing Efficiency: 165.85 (No. 6)
 
Rushing Defense: 123.33 yds/gm (No. 22), 3.64 yds/rush, 1 TD per 67.8 rushes
Pass Defense: 172.67 yds/gm (No. 12), 53%, 6.13 yds/att, 11.64 yds/comp, 6.21% int/att, 1 TD per 30.7 att
Total Defense: 296 yds/gm (No. 6), 4.77 yds/play
Scoring Defense: 14.08 pts/gm (No. 5), 0.227 pts/play
Pass Efficiency Defense: 102.51 (No. 7)
 
Net Punting: 36.9 yds/p (No. 49)
Punt Returns: 13.08 yds/r (No. 14)
Kickoff Returns: 24.82 yds/r (No. 14)
Turnover Margin: 0.92 TO/gm (No. 14)
Sacks: 1.83 s/gm (No. 74)
Tackles For Loss: 5.33 t/gm (No. 79)
Sacks Allowed: 2.67 s/gm (No. 98)
 
Red zone offense (No. 52): 53 drives, 44 scores (83%), 32 TD (17 rush, 15 pass), 12 FG
Red zone defense (No. 6): 29 drives, 20 scores (69%), 10 TD (5 rush, 5 pass), 10 FG
 
Common foes
Week 2, Alabama 24-3 vs Penn State (at Tuscaloosa, Alabama)
Week 13, MSU 28-22 at Penn State (at State College, Pennsylvania)
 
Statistically, the only factor that stands out is the Scoring Defense numbers. UA has a 7 point advantage over MSU.
 
Coaching records
 
Mark Dantonio
7th season as head coach
51-35-0 (0.5930)
1-3-0 bowl record
1 Conference Co-Championship
 
1980-2003 (asst)
2004 Cincinnati 7-5-0 (bowl win)
2005 Cincinnati 4-7-0
2006 Cincinnati 7-5-0 (did not coach bowl win)
2007 Michigan St. 7-6-0 (bowl loss)
2008 Michigan St. 9-4-0 (bowl loss)
2009 Michigan St. 6-7-0 (bowl loss)
2010 Michigan St. 11-1-0 (conf co-champion, bowl tbd)
 
Nick Saban
15th season as head coach
133-53-1 (0.7139)
5-6-0 bowl record
1 conference co-championship
3 conference championships
1 NCAA title
 
1972-1987 (asst)
1988-9 NFL (asst)
1990 Toledo 9-2-0 (conf. co-champion)
1991-4 NFL (asst)
1995 Michigan St. 6-5-1 (bowl loss)
1996 Michigan St. 6-6-0 (bowl loss)
1997 Michigan St. 7-5-0 (bowl loss)
1998 Michigan St. 6-6-0
1999 Michigan St. 9-2-0  (did not coach bowl win)
2000 Louisiana St. 8-4-0 (bowl win)
2001 Louisiana St. 10-3-0 (con.f champion, bowl win)
2002 Louisiana St. 8-5-0 (bowl loss)
2003 Louisiana St. 13-1-0 (conf. champion, bowl win)
2004 Louisiana St. 9-3-0 (bowl loss)
2005-6 NFL HC Miami, 15-17-0
2007 Alabama 7-6-0 (bowl win) ** 5 wins vacated due to NCAA sanctions
2008 Alabama 12-2-0 (bowl loss)
2009 Alabama 14-0-0 (NCAA title, conf. champions, bowl win)
2010 Alabama 9-3-0 (bowl tbd)
 
The 7-Year Itch
Dantonio in 7 seasons is 51-35-0 with 1 game to go, 4 bowls (1-3) and 1 conference co-championship.
Saban in his first 7 seasons was 51-30-1, 4 bowls (1-3) and 1 conference co-championship (not counting the 4-year hiatis in the NFL).
Both left a program before a bowl game and those 2 bowls were wins (not counted in their records).
 
Looking at it from the other perspective...
Dantonio in his 4 seasons at MSU is 33-18-0 (0.6471) with 1 game to go, 3 bowls (0-3) and 1 conference co-championship.
Saban in his 4 seasons at UA is 42-11-0 (0.7925) with 1 game to go (not excluding the vacated wins), 3 bowls (2-1), 1 conference championship, and 1 NCAA title.
 
A Grand Reunion
Of the 20 coaches on the sidelines for the upcoming Capital One Bowl, 9 (3 MSU Head Coaches, 6 MSU assistant coaches) have prior coaching/playing experience prior to 2007 (and their current positions). This does not include current MSU assistants who arrived for the first time in 1997 or later.
 
2007-10 Nick Saban is the Alabama Head Coach.
1995-99 Nick Saban was the Michigan State Head Coach.
1983-87 Nick Saban was an assistant coach (defensive coordinator / defensive backs) under then MSU Head Coach George Perles.
 
2007-10 Mark Dantonio is the Michigan State Head Coach.
2000 Mark Dantonio was an assistant coach (defensive backs) under then MSU Head Coach Bobby Williams.
1995-99 Mark Dantonio was an assistant coach (defensive backs) under then MSU Head Coach Nick Saban.
 
2008-10 Bobby Williams is an assistant coach (tight ends/special teams) at Alabama.
2000-02 Bobby Williams was the Michigan State Head Coach.
1995-99 Bobby Williams was an assistant coach (running backs) under then MSU Head Coach Nick Saban.
 
2010 Brad Salem is an assistant coach (running backs) at Michigan State
1995 Brad Salem was a graduate assistant coach (quarterbacks / wide receivers) under then MSU Head Coach Nick Saban.
 
2008-10 Jim McElwain is an assistant coach (offensive coordinator / quarterbacks) at Alabama.
2003-05 Jim McElwain was an assistant coach (receivers / special teams) under then MSU Head Coach John L. Smith.
 
2007-10 Joe Pendry is an assistant coach (offensive line) at Alabama.
1980 Joe Pendry was an assistant coach (offensive coordinator / quarterbacks) under then MSU Head Coach Frank "Muddy" Waters.
 
2009-2010 Sal Sunsari is an assistant coach (linebackers) at Alabama.
2001 Sal Sunsari was an assistant coach (linebackers / special teams) under then MSU Head Coach Bobby Williams.
 
2007-10 Don Treadwell is an assistant coach (offensive coordinator and wide receivers) at Michigan State.
2000-02 Don Treadwell was an assistant coach (wide receivers) under then MSU Head Coach Bobby Williams.
 
2007-10 Harlon Barnett is an assistant coach (secondary) at Michigan State.
1986-89 Harlon Barnett was a defensive back under then MSU Head Coach George Perles.

Why MSU should win.
1. 11-1 going for 12-1 (school single season record)
2. 0-3 in bowls under Dantonio
3. Big Ten Co-Champion, no Rose Bowl, no BCS Bowl
4. Saban's history with MSU
5. Mark Dantonio
6. Edwin Baker, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Bates, Keshawn Martin, Greg Jones, Dan Conroy
 
Why MSU could lose.
1. Slow starts
2. Mistakes (5 of 9 interceptions in final 4 games)
3. Mental errors (fumble on the what could have been game-ending interception at Penn State would have been avoided by taking a knee in the end zone)
 
Why UA should win.
1. Scoring defense
2. 27-28 versus BCS No. 1 Auburn
3. 2009 NCAA Champion
4. Nick Saban
5. Greg McElroy, Julio Jones, Robert Lester, Marquis Maze, Trent Richardson
 
Why LSU could lose.
1. Lost 2 of last 4 (1 win over 1st season FCS Georgia State)
2. South Carolina and Auburn both gave clinics on how to stop the UA rushing game.
3. Rush defense has slipped in last 4 games. Excluding GaSt., UA rush defense allowing 45 yds/gm more than season average (20 yds/gm including GaSt.).